Which of the Monterey Five Will Be Arrested for Murder? We Ranked the Most Likely Suspects

At long last, Big Little Lies is back (it’s only been two years), and, with it, the Monterey Five. (Not to mention our Big Little Lies season 2 arrest theories.) HBO’s hit series about a group of moms in an affluent Northern California community took the world by a big little storm when it debuted in 2017. In fact, fans couldn’t accept that BLL was being billed as a limited series; the feedback was so passionate that, against all odds, the network decided to change its mind and revisit the secretive world of Monterey moms and their seaside drama once more.

But for all the trouble the ladies seemed to have last season, the show promisee even more in season two. For starters — and, spoiler alert — the women appear to be at the center of a homicide investigation. Not only that, but the murdered party’s mom is sniffing around for answers, too. Will one of our drama-addled mamas wind up in jail?

Unfortunately, it’s definitely a possibility. So, we’ve decided to take a look at the women at the heart of BLL to determine who might wind up behind bars (which, admittedly, would make for an even juicier season than we imagine).

From least to most likely, here’s who we think could have to trade PTA for the prison yard.

  1. Mary Louise Wright (Meryl Streep)

Sure, Mary Louise isn’t technically one of the Monterey Five. We don’t even know that much about her at the moment, other than the fact she came to Monterey after her son, Perry (Alexander Skarsgård) was killed. She’s presumably there to help her daughter-in-law, Celeste (Nicole Kidman) take care of the couple’s kids — and Mary Louise’s grandkids — Josh and Max. So it doesn’t seem like she’d be in any danger of being carted off to the clink. However, her son was basically a sociopath, and we don’t yet know what, if any, role she played in that. Therefore, she makes the list based on the remote chance she might snap and pull a Perry.

'BLL' Mary Louise.
GIF: HBO/Giphy.
  1. Jane Chapman (Shailene Woodley)

We sincerely hope Jane’s troubles are mostly behind her, because the poor girl had a super-tough go of it last season. Although we didn’t really find out the entire story until the season drew to a close, it became abundantly clear that Perry had raped Jane years prior — a violent act that resulted in Jane’s PTSD and in her son, Ziggy. Now that the truth is out (well, at least among the Five) and Perry is no longer in the picture, we’re hoping to see her start the real healing. And if that does happen, she probably wouldn’t do anything to jeopardize it. Plus, unless the police suss out who Ziggy’s father is, they probably won’t focus on Jane as a serious suspect.

'BLL' Jane GIF.
GIF: HBO/Giphy.
  1. Madeline Martha Mackenzie (Reese Witherspoon)

Our girl Madeline lands in the middle since we all know she practically walks around town with a big ol’ spoon for stirring all the pots. She’s also known for being a bit of a hothead and very transparent with her feelings, so it wouldn’t be surprising if she got caught in the police crosshairs — especially if her affair comes to light, which would further indicate she isn’t above secrets and deception. We all know she didn’t murder Perry, but would anyone really put it past her? Just sayin.’

'BLL' Madeline GIF.
GIF: HBO/Giphy.
  1. Renata Klein (Laura Dern)

In the grand scheme of everything that went down last season, Renata didn’t necessarily have the worst time. Her daughter Amabella was being bullied which, honestly, would have been incredibly upsetting for any parent. Still, in light of everything that went down with the other women, you might say Renata is due an uptick in drama this season. Besides, did you see the trailers for the new episodes? Renata has always seemed like a woman with a lot bubbling beneath the surface, but in the teaser previews, it looks like she might be getting a bit of that rage and internal repression out. Will she do something that draws the authorities’ attention? Anything’s possible when Renata’s on a rampage.

'BLL' Renata.
GIF: HBO/Giphy.
  1. Celeste Wright (Nicole Kidman)

Here’s the thing about Celeste: She actually seems incredibly healthy and present given everything she’s been through. We would be wrecked, but she manages to hold it together beautifully — literally, she’s stunning — most of the time. However, she was the wife of the man who got killed. He had been abusing her for years, which may or may not become a center of focus in the investigation. Her mother-in-law is apparently hellbent on finding someone to blame (other than Perry) for Perry’s death. So, if the blame is going to land on anyone, the odds might be stacked against poor Celeste.

'Bll' Celeste.
GIF: HBO/Giphy.


  1. Bonnie Carlson (Zoë Kravitz)

And then there’s Bonnie. Sweet, fragile, complicated Bonnie. There’s still a lot to unpack about how this woman on the outskirts of her social circle ended up being the person actually responsible for Perry’s death. We’ll certainly learn more about it in season two, and, hey, maybe Bonnie will wind up finding her inner strength again at some point in the process. For now, though, she is clearly struggling. The other women have sworn to secrecy and promised to protect Bonnie, and they could probably follow through. But so far, Bonnie seems to have checked out — and teasers for the rest of the season hint at her ultimate unraveling.

'BLL' Bonnie.
GIF: HBO/Giphy.